The real job numbers

Obama gave speeches this week touting the wonderful jobs numbers but reality is quite different from propaganda. Here is a great post from Slope of Hope on what the job numbers are REALLY like (just another reason NOT to listen to anything on CNBC):

In the spirit of the words of the legendary samurai swordsman, Miyamoto Musashi (Book Of Five Rings), "Think of what is right and true. Learn to see everything accurately", let us parse the number we have been given on Friday, June 4, 2010. Hat tip to John Williams of Shadowstats for methodology.

Employment increased by 431,000 jobs was the reported number. Of that 431,000 jobs, 411,000 were temporary census jobs created by the 2010 Census. These jobs disappear in a few months. The Bureau Of Labor Statistics says that 31,000 new jobs created in May were TEMPORARY service jobs. These 31,000 jobs were also included in the May figure.

Next we come to the infamous birth/death deflater. This attempts to measure the creation of new jobs due to the formation of new small business enterprises. In an economic expansion, there maybe some merit to this. In an economic contraction, it creates pure fantasy. Included in the May report was the fantasy of an increase 215,000 jobs due to this "factor."

Let us do the math here together. 431,000 jobs less the census temporary hiring leaves us with 20,000 new jobs. Subtract out the 31,000 TEMPORARY service jobs and we have a LOSS of 11,000 jobs. From this, we need to subtract out the birth/death deflater fantasy number of 215,000 jobs and we are now at a LOSS of 226,000 jobs! Now it really starts to get "fun." Though not statistically rigorous, a case can be made that in order to keep up with population growth, 150,000 new jobs must be created per month just to stay even. IF you were to add that number in, the jobs that were NOT there would be a negative 376,000.

Month of June. A month for joyous graduations. We should all have a moment of silence and send out good thoughts to the June graduates of 2010. They are coming out of our institutions of higher learning, most laden with student loan debt and will have a very difficult time finding part-time jobs at WalMart stocking shelves at a minimum wage.

The market did not believe the numbers on Friday either. It seems that the managers of the perception manipulation machinery are running out of tricks. MOPE (Management Of Perspective Economics) is beginning to fail.

I will leave you with the wise observation of Herr Doctor Joseph Goebbels, Reich Minister for The Ministry of Public Enlightenment and Propaganda.

“If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State.”

The first sentence is often quoted. Once you read the complete quote, you will understand WHY the rest is usually omitted.

http://slopeofhope.com/2010/06/a-dissection-of-the-may-employment-report-market-sniper.html