Monday, July 27, 2009

The end of the end of the recession

From Zero Hedge (and he didn't mention much about the disaster of the Commercial Real Estate market, or that the S&P 500 is trading at an overall P/E of 140, or several other trouble areas):

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/The%20End%20Of%20The%20End%20Of%20The%20Recession.pdf

A couple of corrections needed for the above slide show.

Not to just pick on the MSM reporting. I was sent (by several readers) a housing analysis yesterday. It was some sort of weird mash up between the excellent David Rosenberg and some blogger. The charts are great, but the analysis is sometimes inaccurate. The "research" made comments like this for the NAHB HMI: “Sales outlook is stuck at 26, and anything under 50 is a contraction”. Not correct. The NAHB index is a sentiment indicator and doesn’t indicate contraction. Any number under 50 indicates more builders view sales as poor than good. See this chart - the index moves with new home sales and housing starts. And another example: "Architectural billings Index slipped five points last month to 37.7 - a sign residential construction is just bouncing along bottom". The ABI is primarily for non-residential construction.

I'm not trying to pick on or embarrass any particular publication or blogger. But it helps to know your sources. And I could be wrong about prices; we will know when the October and November data is released (a six month wait!)


http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/07/few-comments-on-housing-reports.html

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