Friday, December 19, 2008

GM (and Chrysler) get their free money

I guess Bush just didn't want GM going bankrupt during his presidency. $17 billion isn't going to make any difference - except delay the inevitable. The car market over the past decade, where people could easily buy cars they couldn't afford and the banks let anyone who asked get a loan regardless of risk, is now over. The car market that was on a foundation of BS has now disappeared - the credit bubble and housing bubble have popped. There is no longer any demand for all the new cars. The party is over. The politicians just don't get it. Printing trillions of dollars won't get the party going again. There will be massive job losses and plant closings regardless of what the US government does - the car market of the past decade is GONE and won't be coming back any time soon, if ever.

If I were a member of the UAW I would take the next three months to find a job somewhere else - even if it meant moving to the South and working at a non-union shop. Except that Toyota, Honda, Nissan, and the rest have had their sales crater too - there aren't going to be too many new jobs around anywhere. I would be looking to find a new skill - the car industry is not a good place to be.

A lot of rocks have been thrown at the UAW over the bailouts, but another area that is horribly inefficient and bloated is the Big 3 dealer networks. Management, engineering, R&D, lobbying, UAW, dealer networks, etc. are screwed-up - the whole system is a mess. Even if the demand for cars miraculously returned (and they won't) there is no way the Big 3 can turn their business models around in a few months.

The party is over. It's just a matter of when someone finally turns off the lights.

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